New FAO Statistical Yearbook links figures to trends

20 March 2012, Rome - Keeping track of statistics related to food and agriculture is an important part of efforts to reduce hunger and foster development. Making those numbers more accessible and meaningful to people who need to use them is the idea behind the newly revised FAO Statistical Yearbook.

The yearbook, the foremost collection and reference point for statistical data on food and agriculture, provides a snapshot of related economic, environmental and social trends and issues. It breaks down a myriad of numbers gathered from around the world into four broad thematic categories: the state of the agricultural resource base; hunger dimensions; feeding the world; and sustainability.

Each section of the yearbook is accompanied by background and narrative text, charts, maps and references to additional publications, all of which offer a broader and more in-depth look at a wide range of topics.

Examples of issues examined in the publication include the pressure placed on land and water resources by agriculture, such as overuse and pollution; the potential impact of women's lack of access to agricultural tools and land on national economic and social development; the status of investment in agriculture; the spectrum of malnutrition; food wastage and losses; agriculture and environmental sustainability; and food price volatility.

"The yearbook is a ‘one-stop shop' for all statistical indicator needs. This new product helps researchers, policy-makers, NGOs, journalists — whoever needs statistical information — to more easily narrow the focus to a particular subject and use that as a springboard to get into deeper issues," said Pietro Gennari, FAO Statistics Division Director.

"The broad sweep of this new yearbook reminds us that the eradication of hunger cannot be separated from responses to other global challenges," Gennari added.

Overall, the statistics in the yearbook reflect the growing recognition among governments, donor agencies and others that agriculture must be the mainstay of any development agenda and economic growth policies.

As the sector is intertwined with almost every topic on the development agenda, a major challenge is to capture and monitor the multiple roles of agriculture. This is especially pertinent in developing countries, which account for 98 percent of the world's hungry, and where agriculture remains central to national economies. 

The publication also helps to deepen understanding about how the much-needed increases in agricultural productivity must be weighed against broader social and environmental costs, in order to achieve truly sustainable development.

FAO Statistical Yearbook 

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Agencies, donors boost coordination on food safety, animal and plant health aid

WTO.,NEWS. January 2012. Strengthened coordination to improve results in a number of areas feature in a new medium-term strategy for 2012-16 adopted on 10 January 2012 by a five-agency programme to help developing countries meet international standards on food safety and animal and plant health.

The ultimate goal is to assist developing countries tackle pests, animal and plant diseases and contaminants so that they can expand and diversify food and agricultural production and exports, resulting in economic development, poverty reduction, better nutrition, food security and environmental protection.

The Standards and Trade Development Facility (STDF) contributes to this by helping them build up their capacity to implement requirements known as “sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS)” standards through increased awareness and knowledge of good practices and by funding projects that promote compliance with the standards, including grants to help prepare projects.

It was set up by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), World Bank, World Health Organization (WHO) and World Trade Organization (WTO), and is run by the five partners together with donor countries and representatives of developing countries.

The 2012–16 strategy aims to:

• boost collaboration and information sharing on technical co-operation
• help recipient countries identify their needs, define their priorities and design project proposals that are likely to receive funding from various donors
• improve the performance of countries benefiting from the limited number of STDF-funded projects

Funding to implement new strategy will remain at the current target of $5m per year, with a mid-term review due in 2013. The STDF will continue to dedicate at least 40% of its project resources to beneficiaries in least developed countries (LDCs) and other low income countries.

Since it was set up in 2002, the STDF has supported 47 projects and 48 project-preparation grants benefiting 54 developing countries. In addition, conferences and other events have been organized on thematic cross-cutting topics of common interest such as SPS-related public-private partnerships, the links between SPS and climate change, and the use of economic analysis in SPS decision-making. It has received a total of $25m from 17 donor countries.

Its current donors are Canada, Denmark, EU, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Chinese Taipei, US.

Background

The five organizations formally established the STDF in August 2002 as a partnership and trust fund with three years of start-up financing from the World Bank and the WTO. In 2005, membership of the STDF was expanded to include donors and experts from developing countries with knowledge in the areas of human, animal or plant health, or SPS market access issues more generally.

The STDF is funded through voluntary contributions to the trust fund established under the financial regulations and rules of the WTO. The WTO houses and administers the STDF Secretariat and provides the Secretary to the STDF from its regular budget.

The STDF is a global partnership that supports developing countries in building their capacity to implement international sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards, guidelines and recommendations as a means to improve their human, animal and plant health status and ability to gain or maintain access to markets.

SPS measures can pose significant barriers to the expansion and diversification of food and agricultural exports, a key element in many national development plans and poverty reduction strategies. Moreover, the reduction of pest and disease burdens, and improved food safety, has a key role to play in raising agricultural production, reducing the prevalence of food-borne diseases, increasing food availability, and the protection of the environment.

Hence, building the SPS capacity of developing countries has important public and environmental health benefits and can help in contributing to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Efficient and effective SPS control systems are a global public good.

The STDF brings together the collective expertise and skills of its five partners, donors and developing country experts. This includes the participation of the standard-setting organizations designated as reference bodies by the WTO SPS Agreement in their own right, as well as through the involvement of their parent organizations. The STDF also engages regularly with other organizations and initiatives involved in the provision of SPS-related technical cooperation.

The final beneficiaries of the STDF are public and private sector entities in developing countries seeking to improve their capacity to implement international SPS standards, guidelines and recommendations, and subsequently the consumers of those products throughout the world. Partners, donors and other organizations and initiatives also directly benefit from the work of the STDF, notably in terms of information exchange, sharing experiences and the identification, dissemination and replication of good practice.

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Food prices almost unchanged

8 December 2011, Rome - The FAO Food Price Index in November was virtually unchanged from its October level. At the new level of 215 points, the Index was 23 points, or 10 percent, below its peak in February 2011 but remained two points, or one percent, above its level in November 2010.

The prices of cereals, one of the main commodity groups included in the Food Price Index, dropped by 3 points or 1 percent from October. The retreat was largely driven by wheat prices, which dropped 3 percent, while rice quotations fell only slightly and coarse grain prices remained virtually unchanged. Nevertheless, the cereals index remained 6 points higher than in November 2010.

Contributing to the downward pressure on cereal prices is the significant upward revision of the 2011/2012 global cereal supply estimate as a result of better crop prospects in some Asian countries and the Russian Federation, and larger than anticipated stocks in the latter. Other factors include deteriorating world economic prospects and a strong U.S. Dollar.Record level of total cereals
These are among the highlights of the latest issue of FAO's quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report published today. The report confirmed a record level of world cereal production of 2 323 million tonnes for 2011. Although marginally lower than October's estimate, this represents a 3.5 percent increase on 2010 production.

At this level, the 2011 cereal crop should be sufficient to cover the expected increase in utilization in 2011/12 and also allow for a moderate replenishment of world reserves, the report said.

Among cereals, global wheat output is expected to increase by 6.5 percent, while the forecasts for coarse grains and rice were reduced slightly due to a downward adjustment for maize in the United States and a deterioration of rice prospects in Indonesia.
Animal feed up, and also stocks
Total cereal utilization in 2011/2012 was forecast at 2 310 million tonnes, 1.8 percent higher than in 2010/2011. An important feature is a sharp, 8 percent rise in the use of wheat for animal feed given its competitive price compared to coarse grains and maize in particular.

The forecast for world cereal ending stocks by the close of seasons in 2012 has been raised by almost five million tonnes since last month, to 511 million tonnes, the report said. At this level world cereal stocks would be 10 million tonnes higher than last year and the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio would increase slightly to 22 percent.

Crop Prospects and Food Situation — which focuses on developments affecting the food situation of developing countries and in particular Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) — noted that given their likely increased import requirements, the aggregate cereal import bill of LIFDCs for the 2011/2012 marketing season would reach a record level of US$33 billion — up 3.4 percent from 2010/2011.
Food insecurity hotspots
Reviewing the world's food security hotspots, the report said that despite some improvements in the situation in Somalia due to substantial humanitarian assistance and favourable rains food insecurity is expected to remain critical in drought-affected areas until the harvest of short-season crops in early 2012.

While famine conditions are expected to persist in Middle Shabelle and refugee populations in Afgoye and Mogadishu, the areas of Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle were downgraded from Famine to Emergency on 18 November

In the Horn of Africa as a whole, food insecurity remained critical for some 18 million people in most drought-affected areas, including 4.6 million in Ethiopia, 4 million each in Somalia and the Sudan, 3.75 million in Kenya, 1.5 million in South Sudan and 180 000 in Djibouti are in need of emergency assistance. Irregular rains and civil unrest undermine food security
In West Africa, in several countries of the Sahel including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger agricultural production has been hit by irregular rains and significant pest infestations. This could lead to price rises and food insecurity.

In the Near East, prolonged civil unrest in Syria and Yemen has disrupted trade and humanitarian aid distribution, limiting access to food, especially for vulnerable households.

FAO's latest estimates indicate that 33 countries around the world are in need of external assistance as a result of crop failures, conflict or insecurity, natural disasters and high domestic food prices.

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Global forest land-use change from 1990 to 2005

FAO. 30 November 2011, Rome.The world lost nearly ten hectares of forest per minute between 1990 and 2005.A new, satellite-based survey released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provides a more accurate picture of changes in the world's forests, showing forest land use declined between 1990 and 2005.

The findings of a global remote sensing survey show the world's total forest area in 2005 was 3.69 billion hectares, or 30 percent of the global land area.
 
The new findings suggest that the rate of world deforestation averaged 14.5 million hectares per year between 1990 and 2005, which is consistent with previous estimates. Deforestation largely occurred in the tropics, likely attributable to the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land.

On the other hand, the survey shows that worldwide, the net loss in forest area between 1990 and 2005 was not as great as previously believed, since gains in forest areas are larger than previously estimated.

Net loss — in which losses of forest cover are partially offset by afforestation or natural expansion — totalled 72.9 million hectares, or 32 percent less than the previous figure of 107.4 million hectares, according to the survey. In other words, the planet lost an average of 4.9 million hectares of forest per year, or nearly 10 hectares of forest per minute over the 15-year period.

The new data also show that the net loss of forests increased  from 4.1 million hectares per year between 1990 and 2000 to 6.4 million hectares between 2000 and 2005.

The figures are based on the most comprehensive use yet of high-resolution satellite data to provide a sample of forests worldwide. They differ from previous FAO findings in the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 (FRA 2010), which were based on a compilation of country reports that used a wide variety of sources.

"Deforestation is depriving millions of people of forest goods and services that are crucial to rural livelihoods, economic well-being and environmental health," said Eduardo Rojas-Briales, FAO Assistant Director-General for Forestry.

"The new, satellite-based figures give us a more consistent, global picture, over time, of the world's forests. Together with the broad range of information supplied by the country reports, they offer decision-makers at every level more accurate information, and underscore the need for countries and organizations to urgently address and halt the loss of valuable forest ecosystems," Rojas-Briales added.

The remote sensing survey was based on a single source of data for all three points in time — 1990, 2000 and 2005 — and used the same input data and methodology for all countries.

"In terms of change in forest area, the new results update our knowledge for Africa, where previous data for some countries was old or of low quality. Here the remote sensing survey shows a much smaller rate of forest loss than previously estimated based on national reports," Adam Gerrand, an FAO Forestry Officer, said.

Regional losses and gains

There were notable regional differences in forest losses and gains.

Between 1990 and 2005 the loss of forests was highest in the tropics, where just under half of the world's forests are located. Net losses in this region averaged 6.9 million ha/yr between 1990 and 2005. The highest rate of conversion of forest land use to other, unspecified, land uses for both periods was in South America, followed by Africa.

Asia was the only region to show net gains in forest land-use area in both periods.

Deforestation occurred in all regions, including Asia, but the extensive planting that has been reported by several countries in Asia (mainly China) exceeded the forest areas that were lost.

Slight net increases in forest area were registered in subtropical, temperate and boreal zones over the full 15 year period.

Further remote sensing studies are expected to reveal changes occurring since 2005, including any progress which may have been made in the protection of existing forests and the establishment of new forests since 2005.

Global view

The new results provide important input into national and international reporting processes which require information on forest area and land-use change statistics. This includes the Convention for Biodiversity and the emerging initiative for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD+), under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), currently being discussed at the 17th Conference of the Parties being held in Durban, South Africa (28 November-9 December 2011).

To develop the survey, FAO worked over four years with technical partners in the European Commission Joint Research Centre and more than 200 researchers from 102 countries to analyze satellite imagery from the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Funding for the study was provided by the European Commission, the Heinz Center, the governments of Australia, Finland and France and FAO

Global forest land-use change from 1990 to 2005

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Innovative agriculture key to meeting future demand for water and energy

17 November 2011–FAO. Innovative agricultural approaches will be crucial to respond to increasing competition for water and energy resources, said the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), calling for more integrated planning and policies that protect small farmers and promote sustainable rural growth.

“Tackling the challenges of food security, economic development and energy security in a context of ongoing population growth will require a renewed and re-imagined focus on agricultural development,” said FAO Assistant Director-General for Natural Resources, Alexander Mueller.

“Agriculture can and should become the backbone of tomorrow’s green economy,” he said, speaking on the sidelines at the Bonn 2011 Nexus Conference, where development leaders are discussing new approaches to manage water, energy and food resources.

FAO estimates that to feed the world population, which is forecast to reach nine billion by 2050, global food production will need to be increased by 70 per cent. In addition, global energy demand will increase by 36 per cent by 2035, intensifying competition for water for farming and industrial purposes, as well as for consumption in cities.

“It’s time to stop treating food, water and energy as separate issues and tackle the challenge of intelligently balancing the needs of these three sectors, building on synergies, finding opportunities to reduce waste and identifying ways that water can be shared and reused, rather than competed for,” Mr. Mueller said.

Instead of the ‘business-as-usual’ approach to economic development and natural resource management, FAO is encouraging innovative agricultural approaches that make better use of resources, minimizing waste and reusing resources whenever possible.

“Climate-smart farming systems that make efficient use of resources like water, land, and energy must become the basis of tomorrow’s agricultural economy,” Mr. Mueller said.

Among the issues being discussed at the Bonn Nexus Conference is the intersection between bioenergy production, water supplies and food security. In a news release issued by the agency, FAO warned that while bioenergy offers a potential source of cleaner energy, biofuel crop production must be done in such a way that it promotes rural growth, provides small farmers and rural workers with employments, and minimizes negative environmental impacts.

World Aquaculture 2010

Aquaculture is the world's fastest-growing source of animal protein and currently provides nearly half of all fish consumed globally, according to a report published here by FAO.   The report World Aquaculture 2010 found that global production of fish from aquaculture grew more than 60 percent between 2000 and 2008, from 32.4 million tonnes to 52.5 million tonnes.

It also forecasts that by 2012 more than 50 percent of the world's food fish consumption will come from aquaculture.

"With stagnating global capture fishery production and an increasing population, aquaculture is perceived as having the greatest potential to produce more fish in the future to meet the growing demand for safe and quality aquatic food," the report said.
Poverty reduction
With its growth in volume and value, aquaculture has clearly helped reduce poverty and improve food security in many parts of the world.

But aquaculture has not grown evenly around the planet. Marked differences in production levels, species composition and farming systems exist within and between regions, and from one country to another.

The Asia-Pacific region dominates the sector -- in 2008 it accounted for 89.1 percent of global production, with China alone contributing 62.3 percent. Of the 15 leading aquaculture-producing countries, 11 are in the Asia-Pacific region.

A few countries lead the production of some major species, such as China with carps; China, Thailand, Viet Nam, Indonesia and India with shrimps and prawns; and Norway and Chile with salmon.
Intensive systems
In terms of farming systems, intensive systems are more prevalent in North America and in advanced aquaculture-producing countries in Europe and Latin America. In the Asia-Pacific region, despite major technical developments, small-scale commercial producers remain the backbone of the sector.

Small-scale producers and small and medium entrepreneurs are also important players in Africa. Commercial and industrial-scale producers dominate in Latin America, but there is strong potential for the development of small-scale production.

While the demand for aquaculture products continues to increase, there is growing recognition of the need to address consumers' concerns for quality and safe products and animal health and welfare, the report said. Thus, issues such as food safety, traceability, certification and ecolabelling are assuming growing importance and considered as high priorities by many governments.

Aside from environmental sustainability, other major challenges faced by aquaculture include climate change and the global economic downturn, the report noted. The sector should therefore prepare itself to face their potential impacts and make special efforts to further assist small-scale producers by organizing them into associations and through promotion of better management practices.

"Achieving the global aquaculture sector's long-term goal of economic, social and environmental sustainability depends primarily on continued commitments by governments to provide and support a good governance framework for the sector," the report added.

World Aquaculture 2010

 The full report, together with regional reviews presented at Global Aquaculture Conference held in Phuket, Thailand in 2010 can be found on the following dedicated website: http://www.fao.org/fishery/regional-aquaculture-reviews/aquaculture-reviews-home/en/

 

Perspectivas de la agricultura y el desarrollo rural en las Américas: una mirada hacia América Latina y el Caribe 2011-2012

Desde finales de 2010 y durante 2011, la volatilidad de los precios de las materias primas ha vuelto a ser un factor protagonista en las agendas de los tomadores de decisiones. A ello se suma la incertidumbre sobre una nueva crisis económica mundial debido a las adversidades macroeconómicas que experimentan los Estados Unidos y Europa. El panorama se ha complicado en los últimos meses por la crisis alimentaria del Cuerno de África, que nos recuerda la gran vulnerabilidad en que todavía viven amplios segmentos de la población mundial.

Para contribuir con información y análisis a una mejor comprensión de esos fenómenos y de sus efectos con miras a la formulación de políticas públicas en la región, presentamos el tercer número de Perspectivas de la agricultura y del desarrollo rural en las Américas: Una mirada hacia América Latina y el Caribe.

Este documento ha sido elaborado conjuntamente por la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), la Oficina Regional para América Latina y el Caribe de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura (FAO) y el Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura (IICA).

En este número se enfatiza la importancia de que los países cuenten con instrumentos de política diferenciados para atenuar los efectos de la mayor volatilidad de los precios (incluido el tipo de cambio) en los ámbitos social, productivo y macroeconómico. Se postula también la necesidadde contar con políticas integrales para abordar los efectos de la mayor variabilidad climática en la agricultura, pues en un contexto de cambio climático es un factor adicional que contribuye a incrementar la volatilidad de los precios agrícolas.

La tendencia de largo plazo al alza de los precios de las materias primas agrícolas brinda una oportunidad para la agricultura de América Latina y el Caribe, porque en la región hay tierra disponible que puede incorporarse al esfuerzo productivo, así como una abundancia relativa de agua, biodiversidad y recursos humanos que es posible capitalizar.

En el documento se recomienda aprovechar este potencial con políticas de desarrollo productivo dirigidas a fomentar la producción de alimentos, promover una mayor participación de la  agricultura familiar en el proceso e incentivar un uso sostenible de los recursos naturales. El objetivo debe ser mejorar los aportes de la agricultura y las actividades relacionadas a la generación de ingresos y empleos. Asimismo, se recomienda potenciar la ganadería, la acuicultura y el desarrollo forestal comunitario en el ámbito de la agricultura familiar campesina, diseñando esquemas alternativos que garanticen la producción sostenible de alimentos y contribuyan a la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional.

También se subraya que los países favorecidos por el alza de precios de las materias primas agrícolas deberían aprovechar la coyuntura para promover procesos de cambio que permitan diversificar la estructura productiva de las economías. Más aún, se reconoce que el cierre de las brechas tecnológicas que persisten en el sector agrícola de la región ofrece un importante potencial para elevar el rendimiento productivo y, por esa vía, incrementar significativamente la producción de alimentos. Para ello se considera fundamental aumentar la asignación de recursos a la investigación, el desarrollo y la innovación y mejorar el clima de inversión en la agricultura y las actividades relacionadas.

Consideramos que la reducción de la volatilidad de los precios y la prevención de las crisis alimentarias recurrentes son, en gran medida, una responsabilidad de ámbito mundial. Hay decisiones que deberán adoptarse en foros internacionales, en respuesta, por ejemplo, a las sugerencias para el establecimiento de una reserva mundial de emergencia y de una reserva virtual, que hasta ahora no han sido atendidas. Se ha propuesto también la regulación de los mercados de productos básicos para reducir el efecto de la especulación sobre el alza de precios de los alimentos, pero la reacción ha sido lenta.

En la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) se ha recomendado el mecanismo especial de salvaguardia para países en desarrollo con objeto de hacer frente a caídas bruscas de los precios agrícolas o a alzas sustanciales de importaciones que atenten contra el desarrollo rural, pero la discusión está estancada. Es fundamental evitar que se castigue a los países importadores de alimentos agravando sus vulnerabilidades, o que se introduzcan mayores distorsiones en los mercados mundiales de alimentos. Los países de la región deberían participar de un modo más coordinado en los foros internacionales, actuando mancomunadamente en iniciativas que integren herramientas de política con miras a un beneficio regional.

Como en los dos números anteriores, se incluye un informe especial, en esta ocasión dedicado al uso de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) en la agricultura. Para potenciar el impacto de las TIC, los países deben aumentar la conectividad rural y fomentar el acceso a esas tecnologías y su uso en la institucionalidad nacional (gobierno electrónico o agenda digital, entre otras aplicaciones). Estas medidas son esenciales para reducir los costos de la tecnología, al igual que es importante disminuir la resistencia de los agentes rurales a incorporarla en la gestión y producción de los negocios agrícolas. En el documento se sostiene que aprovechar el potencial de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones para reducir la brecha tecnológica y para mejorar las condiciones laborales, productivas y de acceso al mercado en el medio rural debe ser también un imperativo de las políticas púbicas orientadas a fortalecer la agricultura y su contribución al desarrollo de los países de la región.

Documento completo en formato PDF (1,81 Mb)



Comunicado de Prensa. CEPAL (21 de octubre, 2011)

El Estado de la Inseguridad Alimentaria en el Mundo 2011

En "El Estado de la Inseguridad Alimentaria en el Mundo 2011", se hace hincapié en las diferentes repercusiones que tuvo la crisis alimentaria mundial de 2006-08 en los distintos países, y que afectó más a los más pobres. Mientras que algunos países grandes lograron hacer frente a las peores consecuencias de la crisis, las poblaciones de muchos países pequeños que dependen de las importaciones registraron un aumento considerable de los precios que, aunque solo fuera temporal, puede tener efectos permanentes en su capacidad de obtener ingresos y de salir de la pobreza en el futuro.

El informe del año en curso se centra en los costos de la volatilidad de los precios de los alimentos, así como en los riesgos y oportunidades que plantean los elevados precios de los alimentos. El cambio climático y la mayor frecuencia de las perturbaciones meteorológicas, el aumento de los vínculos entre los mercados energéticos y agrícolas debido a la creciente demanda de biocombustibles y el aumento de la “financierización” de los productos alimenticios y agrícolas básicos apuntan a que la volatilidad de los precios será una realidad perdurable. En este informe se describen los efectos de dicha volatilidad en la seguridad alimentaria y se presentan opciones en materia de políticas para reducir la volatilidad de una forma efectiva en función de los costos y para controlar dicho fenómeno cuando no se pueda evitar.

Resumen

Documento Completo

ES Connect
Herramienta de registro en línea del Departamento de Desarrollo Económico y Social de la FAO. Inscríbase para mantenerse informado sobre las próximas reuniones y nuevas publicaciones sobre la seguridad alimentaria y el desarrollo rural.

Mensajes Clave del Estado de la Inseguridad Alimentaria 2011

Los países pequeños dependientes de las importaciones, especialmente en África, se vieron profundamente afectados por la crisis alimentaria y económica. Algunos países grandes lograron aislarse de la crisis mediante políticas comerciales restrictivas y redes de seguridad efectivas. Sin embargo, las restricciones comerciales aumentaron el nivel de los precios y su volatilidad en los mercados internacionales.

Es probable que los precios de los alimentos sigan siendo elevados y volátiles. La demanda de los consumidores en los países con economía en rápido crecimiento aumentará, la población continuará creciendo, y debido a la expansión de los biocombustibles el sistema alimentario se verá sometido a demandas adicionales. En el lado de la oferta, se plantean desafíos debido a la creciente escasez de los recursos naturales en algunas regiones y a la disminución de las tasas de crecimiento de los rendimientos de algunos productos básicos. La volatilidad de los precios de los alimentos podría incrementarse debido a los vínculos más estrechos entre los mercados agrícolas y energéticos, así como a la mayor frecuencia de las perturbaciones causadas por fenómenos meteorológicos.

La volatilidad de los precios hace que los pequeños agricultores y los consumidores pobres sean cada vez más vulnerables a la pobreza. Dado que los alimentos constituyen una gran proporción de los ingresos de los agricultores y del presupuesto de los consumidores pobres, los aumentos significativos de los precios tienen efectos considerables en los ingresos reales. Por ello, incluso episodios breves de alza de los precios a los consumidores o descenso de los precios a los agricultores pueden provocar la venta a bajo precio de activos productivos, como tierra y ganado, por ejemplo, lo cual puede dar lugar a la trampa de la pobreza. Además, cuando las variaciones de los precios son imprevisibles, la probabilidad de que los pequeños agricultores inviertan en medidas encaminadas a aumentar la productividad es menor.

Unos cambios significativos de los precios a corto plazo pueden tener repercusiones a largo plazo en el desarrollo. Los cambios en los ingresos debido a las fluctuaciones de los precios pueden hacer que se reduzca el consumo por los niños de nutrientes esenciales durante los primeros 1 000 días de vida desde el momento de la concepción, lo que a su vez causa una reducción permanente de su capacidad de obtener ingresos en el futuro, aumenta la probabilidad de que resulten afectados por la pobreza en el futuro y, en consecuencia, provoca una ralentización del proceso de desarrollo económico.

Unos precios altos de los alimentos intensifican la inseguridad alimentaria a corto plazo. Los beneficios recaen principalmente en los agricultores que disponen de acceso adecuado a la tierra y otros recursos, mientras que los más pobres de entre los pobres compran más alimentos de los que producen. Además de perjudicar a los pobres de las zonas urbanas, los precios elevados de los alimentos perjudican también a gran parte de los pobres de las zonas rurales, que normalmente son compradores netos de alimentos. La diversidad de las repercusiones dentro de cada país apunta también a la necesidad de mejorar el análisis de los datos y las políticas.

Unos precios altos de los alimentos presentan incentivos para incrementar la inversión a largo plazo en el sector agrícola, lo que puede contribuir a mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a más largo plazo. Los precios nacionales de los alimentos, tanto al por menor como a la salida de la explotación agrícola, se incrementaron considerablemente en la mayoría de los países durante la crisis alimentaria mundial de 2006-08. Pese a los altos precios de los fertilizantes, esto condujo a una robusta respuesta de la oferta en muchos países. Es esencial aprovechar esta respuesta de la oferta a corto plazo incrementando la inversión en la agricultura, incluso mediante iniciativas dirigidas a los pequeños agricultores y les ayudan a lograr acceso a los mercados, como la Iniciativa Compras en aras del progreso.

Las redes de seguridad son cruciales para mitigar la inseguridad alimentaria a corto plazo, así como para proporcionar una base para el desarrollo a largo plazo. Para lograr la reducción efectiva de las consecuencias adversas de la volatilidad de los precios, es preciso elaborar por anticipado mecanismos de redes de seguridad selectivas en consulta con los grupos de población más vulnerables.

Una estrategia de seguridad alimentaria basada en una combinación de mayor productividad de la agricultura, mayor previsibilidad de las políticas y apertura general al comercio será más eficaz que otras estrategias. Las políticas comerciales restrictivas pueden proteger los precios internos de la volatilidad del mercado mundial, pero estas políticas pueden redundar asimismo en un aumento de la volatilidad de los precios internos como resultado de las crisis del suministro interno, especialmente si las políticas públicas son imprevisibles y erráticas. Unas políticas gubernamentales más previsibles y que promuevan la participación del sector privado en el comercio disminuirán, en general, la volatilidad de los precios.

La inversión en la agricultura sigue siendo fundamental para lograr una seguridad alimentaria sostenible a largo plazo. Por ejemplo, unos sistemas de riego eficaces con respecto a los costos y prácticas y semillas mejoradas gracias a la investigación agrícola pueden reducir los riesgos de producción a los que se enfrentan los agricultores, especialmente los pequeños agricultores, y reducir la volatilidad de los precios. Aunque la mayor parte de la inversión necesaria corresponderá al sector privado, la inversión pública debe cumplir una función catalizadora al proporcionar bienes públicos que el sector privado no suministraría. Estas inversiones deberían respetar los derechos de los actuales usuarios de la tierra y otros recursos. Fuente