OECD composite leading indicators continue pointing to slowdown in economic activity in most major economies

News Release. Paris, 12 January 2012. OECD. Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to a slowdown in activity in most OECD countries and major non-member economies.

The assessment is little changed compared to last month for most countries, but the CLIs for Japan, United States and Russia are showing stronger signs of a positive change in momentum and remain above long-term trend. The CLI for China has deteriorated since last month and is pointing to a slowdown in economic activity towards long-term trend. For other major economies and the Euro area, the CLIs continue pointing to slowdowns.

The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

Methodological Notes:

The CLI methodological notes are available at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/47/44728410.pdf 

Access data:

CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

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Water Reuse: Potential for Expanding the Nation's Water Supply through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater

Jan. 10, 2012. NAS.FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE.WASHINGTON. With recent advances in technology and design, treating municipal wastewater and reusing it for drinking water, irrigation, industry, and other applications could significantly increase the nation's total available water resources, particularly in coastal areas facing water shortages, says a new report from the National Research Council.  It adds that the reuse of treated wastewater, also known as reclaimed water, to augment drinking water supplies has significant potential for helping meet future needs.  Moreover, new analyses suggest that the possible health risks of exposure to chemical contaminants and disease-causing microbes from wastewater reuse do not exceed, and in some cases may be significantly lower than, the risks of existing water supplies. 

                                                                 

"Wastewater reuse is poised to become a legitimate part of the nation's water supply portfolio given recent improvements to treatment processes," said R. Rhodes Trussell, chair of the committee that wrote the report and president of Trussell Technologies, Pasadena, Calif.  "Although reuse is not a panacea, wastewater discharged to the environment is of such quantity that it could measurably complement water from other sources and management strategies."

The report examines a wide range of reuse applications, including potable water, non-potable urban and industrial uses, irrigation, groundwater recharge, and ecological enhancement.  The committee found that many communities have already implemented water reuse projects -- such as irrigating golf courses and parks or providing industrial cooling water in locations near wastewater reclamation plants -- that are well-established and generally accepted.  Potable water reuse projects account for only a small fraction of the volume of water currently being reused.  However, many drinking water treatment plants draw water from a source that contains wastewater discharged by a community located upstream; this practice is not officially acknowledged as potable reuse.    

The report outlines wastewater treatment technologies for mitigating chemical and microbial contaminants, including both engineered and natural treatment systems.  These processes can be used to tailor wastewater reclamation plants to meet the quality requirements of intended reuse applications.  The concentrations of chemicals and microbial contaminants in reuse projects designed to augment drinking water supplies can be comparable to or lower than those commonly present in many drinking water supplies.  The committee emphasized the need for process reliability and careful monitoring to ensure that all reclaimed water meets the appropriate quality objectives for its use.

Costs of water reuse for potable and non-potable applications vary widely because they depend on site-specific factors, the committee said.  Water reuse projects tend to be more expensive than most water conservation options and less expensive than seawater desalination and other new supply alternatives.  Although the costs of reclaimed water are often higher than current water sources, the report urges water authorities to consider other costs and benefits in addition to monetary expenditures when assessing reuse projects.  For example, water reuse systems used in conjunction with a water conservation program could be effective in reducing seasonal peak demands on the drinking water system.  Depending on the specific designs and pumping requirements, reuse projects could also have a larger or smaller carbon footprint than existing supply alternatives or reduce water flows to downstream users and ecosystems.   

Water reuse regulations differ by state and are not based on risk-assessment methods, the report says.  Adjustments to the federal regulatory framework could help ensure a high level of public health protection, provide a consistent minimum level of protection across the nation, and increase public confidence in potable and non-potable water reuse.  The report notes that existing legislative tools could be applied to improve the quality of water for reuse, including updating the National Pretreatment Program's list of priority pollutants to include a wider inventory of known toxic substances.  Also, it lists 14 areas of research to help guide the country on how to apply water reuse appropriately.  Such research would require improved coordination among federal and nongovernmental organizations.

The study was sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, National Science Foundation, National Water Research Institute, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Water Research Foundation, Orange County Water District, Orange County Sanitation District, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, Irvine Ranch Water District, West Basin Water District, Inland Empire Utilities Agency, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts, and Monterey Regional Water Pollution Control Agency. 

The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council make up the National Academies.  They are independent, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology, and health policy advice under an 1863 congressional charter.  Panel members, who serve pro bono as volunteers, are chosen by the Academies for each study based on their expertise and experience and must satisfy the Academies' conflict-of-interest standards.  The resulting consensus reports undergo external peer review before completion.  For more information, visit http://national-academies.org/studycommitteprocess.pdf.  A panel roster follows.

Water Reuse: Potential for Expanding the Nation's Water Supply through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater

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Federal Government’s Health Care Spending Continues Rapid Increase, Shifting Costs to Taxpayers

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services today released an annual report on national health expenditures that revealed health care spending increased by 3.9 percent in 2010, continuing the upward trend in health care costs. But the news that shouldn’t be overlooked in the report is the federal government’s share of total national health expenditures.

In 2010, the federal government’s share increased to 29 percent. This means the American taxpayer will bear the brunt of this rapidly rising health care spending. And there's no relief in sight. In fact, in 2014 as the health care law’s Medicaid expansion and cost sharing subsidies take effect, taxpayer funding of health care is expected to rise even further.

Proponents of the health care law promised the reforms would decrease costs, but the law fails to actually address the rising cost of health care.  The law ignores the problem, and instead places additional expensive mandates on states, individuals, and businesses. Health care costs are going nowhere but up, and it's taxpayers who are footing more and more of the bill. 

The National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) are the official estimates of total health care spending in the United States. Dating back to 1960, the NHEA measures annual U.S. expenditures for health care goods and services, public health activities, government administration, the net cost of health insurance, and investment related to health care. The data are presented by type of service, sources of funding, and by type of sponsor.

U.S. health care spending accelerated slightly in 2010, increasing 3.9 percent compared to growth of 3.8 percent in 2009. Total health expenditures reached $2.6 trillion, which translates to $8,402 per person or 17.9 percent of the nation's Gross Domestic Product, the same share as in 2009.

Downloads

Highlights [PDF, 50 KB]  NHE Web tables [PDF, 566 KB]  National Health Expenditures by type of service and source of funds, CY 1960-2010 [ZIP, 43 KB]  NHE summary including share of GDP, CY 1960-2010 [ZIP, 3 KB]  Sponsor Highlights [PDF, 376 KB]  Definitions, Sources, Methods [PDF, 420 KB]  Summary of benchmark changes (2009) [PDF, 167 KB])  Summary of benchmark changes (2004) [PDF, 35 KB]  Quick Reference: National Health Expenditure category definitions [PDF, 94 KB]  Nation's health dollar - where it came from, where it went [PDF, 352 KB]

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Reputation matters: spillover effects in the enforcement of US SPS measures

This paper uses a novel dataset on United States food import refusals to show that reputation is an important factor in the enforcement of sanitary and phytosanitary measures. The strongest reputation effect comes from a country's own history of compliance in relation to a particular product. The odds of at least one import refusal in the current year increase by more than 300 percent if there was a refusal in the preceding year, after controlling for other factors. However, the data are also suggestive of the existence of two sets of spillovers. First, import refusals are less likely if there is an established history of compliance in relation to other goods in the same sector. Second, an established history of compliance in relation to the same product by neighboring countries also helps reduce the number of import refusals. These findings have important policy implications for exporters of agricultural products, especially in middle-income countries. In particular, they highlight the importance of a comprehensive approach to upgrading standards systems, focusing on sectors rather than individual products, as well as the possible benefits that can come from regional cooperation in building sanitary and phytosanitary compliance capacity.

Non-tariff measures have become progressively more important trade policy instruments as applied tariff rates have fallen across the world in recent years. From a development perspective, technical regulations and product standards are a particularly important type of non-tariff measure because they highlight the fact that the favorable market access accorded under duty and quota-free preferential schemes remains conditional on compliance with regulations in areas such as consumer safety. Previous research shows that product standards and technical regulations in the large, developed markets can have two contradictory sets of effects for developing country exporters. On the one hand, the costs of compliance—retooling, product re-design, testing, and certification—can be substantial enough to keep many small and medium enterprises out of international markets, thereby affecting the pattern of international specialization (e.g., Essaji, 2008). But at the same time, foreign standards can also provide the impetus for firms and sectors to upgrade production technologies and realize beneficial productivity gains (e.g., Maertens and Swinnen, 2009). The question of which types of standards tend to promote which set of effects is clearly of vital policy importance to developing country exporters. The issue of how best to direct technical assistance resources so as to support the upgrading of standards systems and development of compliance mechanisms in developing countries is also an important part of broader Aid for Trade discussions.

Most previous work on standards and technical regulations has focused on the rules themselves, rather than their design and application or enforcement through specific at-the-border mechanisms. There are a number of recent exceptions, however. Karov et al. (2009) focus on identifying the trade impacts of US phyto-sanitary regulations at the product-country level by analyzing the effects of treatment requirements and grants of new market access. Similarly, Alberini et al. (2005) examine implementation of the FDA’s seafood HACCP program using a dataset of plant inspections. Neither paper, however, deals with the food import refusals mechanism that is the focus of the present paper. Buzby et al. (2008) and Buzby and Roberts (2010) analyze similar data on US import refusals to that used in the present paper, but only provide descriptive statistics. Baylis et al. (2009) is the first paper to investigate US import refusals empirically. In order to test whether import refusal decisions are biased, and what are the reasons for it, they look at a set of potential factors triggering refusals. They find that contrary to prior expectations, countries with experience in exporting products to the US are actually subject to relatively more refusals, thereby suggesting some degree of “stickiness” in the refusal determination process. Their findings also suggest that refusals are influenced by political pressure.

Related work has also been conducted on European food standards. Baylis et al. (2010) use data on EU import alerts—closely related to refusals2—in a gravity model to show that they tend to decrease trade.3 However, they do not examine the determinants of import refusals, and in particular the potential for reputation effects, which is the focus of our paper. Baylis et al. (2011) use information on EU notifications and find that increased use of notifications is linked with a decreased level of protection through tariffs. They also see that European countries that would intuitively be demanders of protection tend to be at the origin of more notifications than their EU partners. Finally, the first stage of the empirical approach taken by Cadot et al. (2009), which tests whether import alerts contribute to increase trade costs and thus supplier concentration, uses EU import alerts as the dependent variable, but the cross-sectional setting of their regressions means that they are unable to account for reputation effects of the type we are interested in here.

World Bank. Author: Jouanjean, Marie-Agnes ; Maur, Jean-Christophe. Document Date: 2012/01/01. Document Type: Policy Research Working Paper

Reputation matters : spillover effects in the enforcement of US SPS measures x

Railway Industry Governance and structure: three pillars

In China and in many other countries there is a compelling public interest in the railway industry. How do different countries try to pursue the public interest in railways? This paper finds common elements of governance and institutional structure in eight countries whose diverse railway industries collectively carry about two-thirds of all the railway traffic in the world outside China: Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, and the USA. These common elements are: the existence of a Ministry of Transport with oversight and multi-modal transport policy responsibility; separation of government policy and regulatory functions from the commercial management of railway services; overwhelming preference for company structures (whether private or state-owned) to deliver railway services; multiple service providers; and divisional or institutional separation of freight from passenger services. China's railway industry governance structure is not based on these elements. But changes in transport competition and in the scale of China's railway industry, together with the desirability of a more coordinated national transport system, suggest that now there may be useful lessons for China from the international experience. The paper speculates on three common policy 'pillars' upon which China may wish to base alternatives for consideration.

Railways contribute both to economic growth and social well-being. Rail freight services usually do the land-based ‘heavy lifting’ of national economies, giving producers in key industries access to high-capacity transport at a cost lower than road transport. Passenger railways also perform valuable economic and social roles in dense inter-city corridors, and as part of wellintegrated regional passenger transport systems in densely populated areas.

These roles could often only be transferred to road transport at a higher cost in road infrastructure, traffic congestion, vehicle emissions and traffic accidents. In countries which have suitable corridors and markets to sustain it, the railway industry is a matter of strong public interest. Public interests are what underpin public policies. This paper summarizes public interests and public policies for railways in eight geographically spread case study countries which have large railway industries, namely Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, Russia, and the USA. These countries carry about two-thirds of the world’s total railway traffic outside China.

Germany, France, Japan and Russia have, like China, mixed-use railways. By contrast, Australia, Brazil, Canada and the USA have limited passenger train activity outside the cities and are predominantly freight carrying railways. The eight countries therefore have very diverse railway industries in terms of their railway markets, train operations, and ownership characteristics.

What then are the public interests in railway transport in these countries? Naturally, their policy-making bodies prioritize objectives differently and use somewhat different vocabularies. Some countries have explicit national transport strategies which formally articulate government objectives across all modes; others are recorded on ministerial websites or in ministerial statements. To paraphrase, the common denominators of public interest seem to be that railways should be efficient, market-responsive (provide good service to their customers), publicly affordable (not imposing an unsustainable burden on the public purse), safe, and environmentally acceptable.

Despite their very different railway industries, the eight countries pursue public interests in railway transport through public governance and institutional frameworks which have some remarkably similar characteristics.

World Bank. Author Amos, Paul;Bullock, Richard. Document Date 2011/12/01.Document Type Brief. Report Number 66216

Governance and structure of the railway industry: three pillarsx

US: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Repor

In the week ending December 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 373,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending December 24, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 24, was 3,595,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,617,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,601,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,602,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 535,112 in the week ending December 31, an increase of 37,423 from the previous week. There were 578,904 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent during the week ending December 24, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,764,364, an increase of 150,906 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.5 percent and the volume was 4,415,512.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending December 17 was 7,223,203, a decrease of 8,311 from the previous week.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending December 17.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,092 in the week ending December 24, an increase of 215 from the prior week. There were 2,332 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 1,565 from the preceding week.

There were 30,777 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending December 17, an increase of 273 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 42,352, a decrease of 883 from the prior week.

States reported 2,932,561 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending December 17, an increase of 6,426 from the prior week. There were 3,577,663 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 17 were in Alaska (6.5), Puerto Rico (4.3), Oregon (4.2), Pennsylvania (4.0), Idaho (3.8), Montana (3.8), California (3.7), Nevada (3.7), Wisconsin (3.7), Illinois (3.6), New Jersey (3.6), and Rhode Island (3.6).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 24 were in California (+16,490), Pennsylvania (+6,764), Michigan (+5,632), Kentucky (+5,263), and Indiana (+5,084) while the largest decreases were in Georgia (-1,105), Texas (-876), Louisiana (-696), South Carolina (-685), and Puerto Rico (-676). 

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UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

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WEEK ENDING	Advance Dec. 31	Dec. 24	Change	Dec. 17	Prior Year1

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Initial Claims (SA)	372,000	387,000	-15,000	366,000	418,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	535,112	497,689	+37,423	421,103	578,904
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	373,250	376,500	-3,250	380,750	418,000

WEEK ENDING	Advance Dec. 24	Dec. 17	Change	Dec. 10	Prior Year1

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Ins. Unemployment (SA)	3,595,000	3,617,000	-22,000	3,567,000	4,127,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA)	3,764,364	3,613,458	+150,906	3,628,110	4,415,512
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	3,601,750	3,602,750	-1,000	3,637,750	4,131,500

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Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2	2.8%	2.9%	-0.1	2.8%	3.3%
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2	3.0%	2.9%	+0.1	2.9%	3.5%

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INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

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WEEK ENDING	Dec. 24	Dec. 17	Change	Prior Year1

Federal Employees	2,092	1,877	+215	2,230
Newly Discharged Veterans	2,332	3,897	-1,565	1,834

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PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

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WEEK ENDING

Dec. 17

Dec. 10

Change

Prior Year1

Regular State	3,603,539	3,611,966	-8,427	4,103,984
Federal Employees (UCFE)	30,777	30,504	+273	47,113
Newly Discharged Veterans (UCX)	42,352	43,235	-883	40,568
EUC 20083	2,932,561	2,926,135	+6,426	3,577,663
Extended Benefits4	570,791	571,848	-1,057	958,537
State Additional Benefits 5	4,524	4,738	-214	6,976
STC / Workshare 6	38,659	43,088	-4,429	52,918
TOTAL	7,223,203	7,231,514	-8,311	8,787,759

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FOOTNOTES
SA - Seasonally Adjusted Data, NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
¹ - Prior year is comparable to most recent data.
² - Most recent week used covered employment of 126,188,733 as denominator.
³ - EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. Tier-specific EUC data can be found here: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/persons.xls
⁴ - Information on the EB program can be found here: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/extenben.asp
⁵ - Some states maintain additional benefit programs for those claimants who exhaust regular, extended and emergency benefits. Information on states that participate,
        and the extent of benefits paid, can be found starting on page 4-5 of this link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf
⁶ - Information on STC/Worksharing can be found starting on page 4-9 of the following link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 12/17/2011 

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STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 

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State	Change		State Supplied Comment
GA	-1,105		Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and manufacturing industries.

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STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 

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State	Change		State Supplied Comment
CA	+16,490		Layoffs in the service industry.
PA	+6,764		Layoffs in the construction, service, transportation, and manufacturing industries.
MI	+5,636		Layoffs in the automobile industry.
KY	+5,263		No comment.
IN	+5,084		layoffs in the manufacturing, service, and construction industries.
IL	+4,206		Layoffs in the service, transportation, warehousing, and construction industries.
OH	+4,084		Layoffs in the transportation, manufacturing, and construction industries.
NJ	+3,838		Layoffs in the educational service industry.
WI	+3,580		No comment.
MO	+3,236		Layoffs in the service, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries.
IA	+2,610		Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
OR	+2,192		No comment.
KS	+2,027		No comment.
WA	+2,025		Layoffs in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries.
MD	+1,901		No comment.
CT	+1,566		No comment.
TN	+1,212		Layoffs in the service, manufacturing, and construction industries.
NC	+1,040		Layoffs in the construction, textile, electronic, and transportation industries.
MN	+1,021		No comment.

State Detail Prior Week
UI Claims Series 1967 to current

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This information will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-693-4676. TDD Message Phone: 1-800-326-2577.  News releases from the U.S. Department of Labor are accessible on the Internet at: http://www.dol.gov/and  http://www.ows.doleta.gov/
EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION. USDL 11-1823-NAT Program Contact: Scott Gibbons (202) 693-3008
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