Thursday, December 22, 2011

Asia Economic Monitor.December 2011

The Asia Economic Monitor is a semiannual review of emerging East Asia’s growth and policy issues. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. This issue includes a special section: Can East Asia Weather Another Global Economic Crisis?.

Economic performance in emerging East Asia remained robust even as moderation continued. Export growth decelerated on weak external demand, while authorities generally maintained tight monetary policies to curb inflation. In the third quarter of 2011, aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) of the 10 largest emerging East Asian1 economies expanded 7.3%,2 down from 7.8% growth in the first half (Figure 1). The People’s Republic of China (PRC) remained the strongest economy in the region, growing 9.1% in the third quarter, slower than its first half 9.6% rate. The four middle-income economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-4) are expected to grow 4.5% in the second half (against 4.9% in the first 6 months).

The four newly industrialized economies (NIEs)4 expanded 3.8% in the third quarter— close to the 3.9% consolidated average annual growth rate between 2001 and 2010, but below its 4.6% first half performance. With leading indicators—exports, industrial production, and retail sales—more or less constant or slightly declining, economic growth in the region is expected to ease further during the remainder of the year 3.8% in the second quarter (Figures 4a, 4b). Growth in inventories in both the NIEs and the ASEAN, though positive, were quite small. In contrast, consumption growth held steady in the NIEs as consumer confidence was mixed (strong in Taipei,China; weak in Hong Kong, China). Consumption growth continued to increase slightly in the ASEAN-4 (except in Thailand). In the PRC, expanding consumption—proxied by retail sales—remained robust, but showed signs of easing gradually

© 2011 Asian Development Bank Date:December 2011. Series: Asia Economic Monitor